New project EXTRA: the first EU observatory on external threats from organised crime

The evolution of criminal networks operating beyond European borders presents a strategic challenge to the EU’s values and internal market, generating illicit proceeds estimated at over 1% of the EU’s GDP (2019). These threats often arise from weak regulatory environments with limited corporate ownership transparency, exploiting poorly monitored digital spaces, emerging technologies – including artificial intelligence – and shell corporate structures to penetrate the licit economy, move capital, and conceal illegal activities.

To address these developments, the European Commission has allocated more than EUR 6 million to project EXTRA – External Threat Assessment of Organised Crime to the European Union: the first European observatory dedicated to global criminal threats affecting the EU. Over the next three years, Transcrime will cooperate with Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC) and INTERPOL to develop a new intelligence framework on the main threats, actors and schemes, the networks in which they operate, and market vulnerabilities, before these evolve into operational crises.

The analyses will feed into an annual report serving as a reference to inform EU decision-making on external security and relations with third countries, complementing Europol’s SOCTA, which focuses instead on internal threats.

Specifically, Transcrime will contribute its analytical capabilities and advanced technologies for assessing risks of infiltration into the licit economy, applying risk indicators and AI-driven models developed and validated in European projects such as DATACROS III, KLEPTOTRACE, FALCON and INVERT, already employed by authorities and law-enforcement agencies in investigations into organised and financial crime, corruption, sanctions evasion, and labour exploitation. The analysis will map economic, financial, and regulatory vulnerabilities facilitating infiltration of the licit economy, anomalous trade flows, opaque ownership links between companies, and investments by organised crime groups – European and non-European – in key sectors of the EU market.

An Advisory Panel comprising experts from international bodies such as the European Commission, Europol, Eurojust, Frontex and UNODC will ensure methodological robustness and alignment with EMPACT priorities – the EU initiative fostering cooperation among Member States, authorities, and partners against criminal threats. In addition to the annual report, EXTRA will produce thematic analyses, new datasets, confidential briefings for competent authorities, and capacity-building activities for third countries.