Places and crime

Understanding, analysing, predicting and managing criminal risks spatially

Crime is not distributed randomly across space. A small number of places have the highest concentration of crime because of the presence of particular physical, social or functional characteristics that can facilitate or encourage criminal behaviour. Understanding and analysing the characteristics of these places makes it possible not only to predict where crime will be concentrated in the future, but also to define targeted prevention or law enforcement strategies that are truly effective, sustainable and long-lasting. Based on this premise, the book aims to provide researchers, police forces, local administrators and security professionals with some theoretical and analytical tools to help interpret the relationship between environmental context and crime. On the one hand, it discusses the main theories and recent empirical evidence on the relationship between places and criminal behaviour, and defines the concepts of risk, vulnerability and exposure to crime. On the other hand, it describes the Risk Terrain Modeling approach, which makes it possible to predict where future crime will be concentrated by analysing specific characteristics of places. A practical application in the city of Milan is also presented, taking into account the risk of robbery and violent crime. Finally, some reflections are proposed on the possibility of developing a strategy for the reduction and management of criminal risks in space, based on data analysis and the active participation of different actors.